Posts Tagged ‘Berita’
Gold Monthly Review – OCTOBER 2009
Posted by: swissgold on: October 10, 2009
Gold has set a new record high above $1,040/oz and the move up to this level does not look over extended yet.
- Dollar weakness on the back of a rise in interest rates in Australia promoted the rally, but there have been other developments too.
- Fabrication demand is very poor and these higher prices will not help, but there must be considerable pent up demand.
- Investor interest is strong at the fund level and with ETF holders.
- All looks bullish, but be wary in case equities start to correct, in which case precious metals are likely to suffer too – initially.
Gold breaks out of its consolidation pattern and rallies to new record highs.
Trading in early September saw Gold prices break higher out of the consolidation pattern that had contained prices for most of June, July and August. Having broken higher prices accelerated up to the high $990’s/oz, paused and then extended gains to $1,024.25/oz, some $8/oz below the highs seen in March 2008 at $1,032.50/oz. The market then consolidated either side of $1,000/oz, before pushing higher to set new record highs at $1,043.80/oz. In recent weeks, sentiment across the broader markets does seem to have taken a turn for the worse as some important economic data has disappointed the market and that might well trigger a much awaited correction in equities. In the past, Gold prices have suffered during the early part of any broad based risk reduction sell-off and it may well do so again. That said, generally this time around money coming out of equities may well move more quickly into the likes of Gold, especially with the dollar under further pressure following the rise in interest rates in Australia.
Geopolitical risks have risen
Iran’s nuclear ambitions have come back into focus with the revelation of a second nuclear plant. With US patience running thin, the market is fearful of a rise in geopolitical tension. The possibility of tough sanctions may have prompted a pick- up in Gold purchases in the Middle East in case overseas bank assets are frozen.
Monthly Technical:
Having set new record highs Gold prices are in uncharted waters. The next level to overcome is the $1,050/oz level, but forecast are likely to be looking at numbers such as $1,250/oz and $1,500/oz. Considering the break into new high ground, prices do not look too extended above the uptrend line, or indeed the 100 week moving average. At the previous peak at $1,032.50/oz prices were $333 above the average, at the $1006/oz peak they were $195 above and now prices are $149 above the average. That’s an average distance of $225/oz which could see this peak rise up towards $1,120/oz. More to the point the fact a new high has been set suggests the uptrend is intact.
Monthly Summary:
Having just set new highs it is difficult to say anything other than that Gold is looking bullish and not overbought. Fabrication demand is weak and will be even weaker now and that puts more emphasis on investors. However, our big picture outlook remains bullish for Gold. We would not be surprised to see corrections get underway in equities and industrial metals and that is likely to rub off negatively for the precious metals as a risk reduction is likely to hit all markets. Never-the- less, if the reflex move is to sell Gold we feel the secondary reaction will be for more investors to look to Gold to provide a safe haven.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 987.00/988.00 in New York. Better than expected home price data provided a lift to equities and commodities in general, taking gold up to 993.00/994.00 in early trade. Weaker then expected consumer confidence knocked us back down to the 988.00 after which we saw a slow grind higher for most of the morning. We continued the move higher in the afternoon, trading up to 996.00/997.00 as the dollar lost ground and equities recovered. We closed the day at 993.00/994.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold has moved higher today to the current 993. This is the first up day following 4 down days that brought the unit from 1019 to 986 on the correction. The 990 level remains our technical line in the sand on a close basis. That level has held on a close since we broke higher on Sept 2/3. We remain bullish while 990 holds looking for another move back to 1024. A close below 990 will turn the focus back to the 960/970 area.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD991.57
Primary Support (Buy) – USD986.23
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD998.13
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD998.22
Primary Support (Buy) – USD977.46
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,011.15
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 992.00/993.00 in New York. Short covering in front of this morning’s economic data helped the metal rally to an intraday high of 996.50/997.50. However much weaker than expected durable goods caused equity markets to retreat and gold followed. The metal was quickly swept lower, triggering stops, reaching a low of 984.00/985.00. Gold recovered marginally from its lows, trading erratically in a range, finding resistance near 993.00. It became range bound as the session unwound, finally settling at 989.75/990.75.
Technical Commentary
Gold—The broader gold uptrend remains in tact, however shorter term technicals are warning of further downside for the metal. The MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal; and the candle pattern is warning of further downside. However, gold has yet to even test its 50 or 100-day moving average (967.33 and 953.30, respectively) and these levels should serve as support.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD998.22
Primary Support (Buy) – USD977.46
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,011.15
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 1015.50/1016.50 in New York. Better than expected jobless claims helped equity markets to rally and gold followed, peaking at 1019.00/1020.00. However the metal quickly became well offered and slipped off its highs. Existing home sales fell short of expectations and equities tumbled along with oil and gold. Good selling continued to drag it lower, triggering stops, and pushing it to an intraday low of 992.25/993.25. It recovered marginally from its lows and traded quietly within a range as the session unwound, closing at 997.00/998.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold took a material drop lower today to current 995. The 1019 level held today for the third day in a row so the metal was liquidated lower on the failure trade. This is the biggest down day in gold since June. We believe the 990 level is key support on a close basis as it has held since Sept 3. Intraday the unit dealt as low as 983 on Sept 10.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD1,001.57
Primary Support (Buy) – USD984.11
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,012.31
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 1012.50/1013.50 in New York. Good investor demand carried the metal higher during the morning, reaching a high 1017.50/1018.50. Profit taking in front of the London fix dragged it lower and the selling continued, triggering stops, plunging to a intraday low of 1006.00/1007.00. It recovered quickly, finding resistance near 1012.00. However light selling during the latter end of the day pushed gold lower to finally settle at 1008.25/1009.25.
Technical Commentary
Gold is closing the week at 1009 which is the same level it ended last week. In Japanese Candles this is known as a “Doji” formation and is considered a reversal warning. A lower close next Friday will trigger longer term selling. The unit reached as high as 1024 this week which is short of our 2008 high target of 1032. The Daily chart is showing its second down day off yesterdays high. This lower close signals a short term turn which should see the unit back toward support 984.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD1,010.64
Primary Support (Buy) – USD1,003.26
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,014.99
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 1015.50/1016.50 in New York. The market traded quietly on the back of relatively benign economic data, climbing to an intraday high of 1020.50/1021.50. It later pulled back from its highs on light selling, slipping to a low of 1013.75/1014.75. Gold traded within a range and managed to stay well supported as oil rallied on weaker than expected inventories data, finally closing at 1018.00/1019.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold made another leg up to the current 1018 today. The close above last week’s high of 1012 keeps the bullish momentum in place with short term price target seen at the 2008 high of 1032. Tough to pick a measured move target based on the triangle pennant due to its width. Suggest ‘pole’ was 125 dollars in length so from the breakout level 965 indicates measured target 1090. Only a close below 990 neutralizes the bullish outlook.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – USD1,009.92
Primary Support (Buy) – USD998.95
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) – USD1,027.53
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 999.00/1000.00 in New York. Better than expected retail sales helped the dollar advance and gold quickly retreated to an intraday low of 991.50/992.50. However the metal became well bid as the dollar lost steam and oil rallied, finding resistance near 1003.00. Good buying drove it higher as the session unwound, peaking at 1005.75/1006.75 before closing marginally lower at 1004.00/1005.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold is struggling with attempts to retake last week’s highs, despite closing above the 1000 level. Sentiment is still bullish however and we see support at the 983 level holding in. Given the current resistance to the topside, when and if it falls we may see gapping behaviour until the market hits the 2008 high of 1032.70.
Technical Analysis
Pivot USD1,003.17
Primary Support (Buy) USD996.25
*BUY = Buying more Gold to Maximum your investment.
Primary Resistance (Sell) USD1,014.03
*SELL = Selling your GOLD investment to gain Profit.
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 999.50/1000.50 in New York and briefly fell to an intraday low of 996.25/997.25. The metal later ticked higher on light buying as the session progressed, peaking at 1003.00/1004.00. It retreated off its highs and traded within a very narrow range. The market remained quiet throughout the latter end of the day, finally closing at 999.00/1000.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold is lower today closing at current 998. The unit failed to revisit Fridays high of 1012 and as a result minor selling has emerged. Down side support comes in at last Thursdays low of 983 with resistance now at 1012. The short term Gold technical picture remains bullish while 990 level holds on a close basis. We will need multiple down days to shake the bullish sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 1,001.09
Primary Support (Buy) – 990.23
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 1,008.90
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 1000.50/1001.50 and slipped as the session began, dipping to an intraday low of 999.50/1000.50. This move quickly reversed as gold gathered momentum on the back of stronger equity markets. It remained well bid and later gapped higher, climbing to a high of 1011.75/1012.75. It traded within range as the market went quiet before oil tumbled and the metal followed. Gold found support near 1002.00 and tick sideways as the day unwound, closing at 1004.00/1005.00
Technical Commentary
Gold at current 1006 is showing as the 4th up week in a row, in a move that started at 931. The technical picture remains bullish with the metal closing for a second week in a row above long term triangle tops of 965 and 975. While above this weeks low of 984, the risk is for a run to 2008 high of 1032.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 1,003.98
Primary Support (Buy) – 996.02
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 1,013.17
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 988.00/989.00 and was swept lower, reaching an intraday low of 983.25/984.25. However it recovered quickly as the dollar slumped due to a wider then expected trade deficit. The metal was well bid throughout the entire session, climbing to an intraday high of 997.75/998.75. Light profit taking as the day unwound pulled gold off its highs to finally settle at 994.50/995.50.
Technical Commentary
Gold is showing a flat close on the day near 995 after spending part of our day probing to the downside as far as 983. On the 24 hour chart it shows that Gold continues to close above the former June high of 990. Downside buy area is seen near 975 with topside resistance at the weeks high of 1007. The overriding theme of Gold is the breakout of the multi week consolidation triangle at 965 and 975 levels. Current price action is viewed as consolidation of the quick $50 up move from 947 to 1007. Overall risk remains for Gold appreciation.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 994.17
Primary Support (Buy) – 985.11
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 1,005.86
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