Archive for June 2009
Gold Dailywatch – Monday 29/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 29, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 941.50/942.50 and ticked slightly higher, peaking at 942.50/943.50. It later retreated on light trading, finding support near 937.00. However profit taking dragged it lower, dipping to 934.00/935.00 before making back lost ground. The market was very quiet and the metal traded within a range, gathering momentum during the early afternoon. It climbed above 940.00 usd/ozs and move sideways as the session unwound, finally settling at 940.25/941.25.
Technical Commentary
Gold is showing unchanged from Fridays close near current 938. The Doji day is a market resting after experiencing extremes over the past week between 913 and 948. We see 943 as a key topside level from a close basis. This level represents the 38.2% Fibo of the 865 to 990 bull run and the 38.2% pull back of the 990 to 913 bear run. If we can close back through that level it puts the 952 and 960 Fibo levels back in play. On the down side, we have raised our trailing stop loss on our bullish view to 932 from 927.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 940.26
Primary Support (Buy) – 932.04
Primary Resistance (Sell) -946.12
Bloomberg Gold News
Posted by: swissgold on: June 29, 2009
Gold Can pass $1,000 if China Shifts Away From U.S. Treasurys
Posted by: swissgold on: June 27, 2009
Gold could go well above $1,000 an ounce in the next couple of years, according to some people bullish on the metal, who say China could boost the yellow metal’s price significantly if it takes the policy actions one of its research officials is advocating.
A Chinese academic with ties to the Chinese Communist Party says the People’s Republic should buy more gold and diversify its nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves away from U.S. Treasurys.
Li Lianhzong, director of the economic bureau at the party’s China Central Policy Research Office, made the comments at a forum in Beijing that also covered the broader topic of China’s currency on the world financial stage.
Li was cited by Dow Jones Newswires as saying China needs to increase the value of its foreign exchange reserves — the source “from which we create our fortune.”
U.S. land and energy products should be at the top of China’s shopping list, according to Li, who also says China should be accumulating more gold to hedge against the risk of a falling dollar which would diminish the value of its U.S. Treasury holdings.
Similar comments about gold were made at the forum, further heightening speculation that China has been a big buyer of gold, keeping the metal above the $900 an ounce level.
To Scott Travers, coin dealer and author of The Coin Collector’s Survival Manual, the Chinese comments come as no surprise. To him, it’s just one of several bullish factors that he expects will propel the yellow metal to new highs.
“I am completely and absolutely convinced that despite short-term gyrations, gold will shoot through $1,000 an ounce and continue going straight up.”
Travers continued, “when gold does hit $1,000 this time around — and it will — there will likely be no turning back, so I foresee $1,500 to $2,000 gold by early 2011.”
He characterizes pullbacks in gold as “gifts”and says, “the gold naysayers just don’t get it.”
At the heart of the matter, says Travers, is the state of the dollar, which he expects will weaken as the U.S. government is forced to sell more debt to fund annual federal deficits in excess of $2 trillion.
It’s the gloomy outlook for the dollar that has China on guard against risk in its holdings of Treasurys and more loudly suggesting the need for a new international reserve currency.
The Chinese academic, Li, told the forum in Bejing that the Chinese currency, the yuan, should be given an equal 20% weighting with the dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen in an International Monetary fund basket of currencies.
The U.S. dollar with a 44% weighting presently dominates the basket known as Special Drawing Rights currencies, or SDRs. Li would like to see the yuan added to the basket next year when the SDR basket comes up for review.
Li’s remarks are seen as a signal that China will continue to pursue a new world reserve currency other than the dollar. That, says Travers, will result in opportunity for investors in gold, a commodity denominated in dollars. As dollars weaken, he says, gold and other metals will rise. Travers says the world will eventually come to grips with the reality that gold and silver are the only real money.
Some are not as bullish on gold’s prospects.
John Nadler, senior analyst of precious metals company Kitco says over the next several months gold’s range will likely “remain between $680 and the $980 area.
He says it’s been a “struggle” for the gold bulls at the four digit level and that the “onous is on them to prove if we’re in the midst of a hypercyle for gold”
“Despite the Armageddonish headlines, the sky ended up not falling and the dollar retains its reserve currency status.” Nadler believes the talk of a the need for a new world reserve currency is merely “jawboning by the Chinese.”
Longer term, Nadler says the jury is still out on whether gold can go deep into four-digit territory. For gold to move to $3,000 to $4,000 an ounce, Nadler says “Kim Jong il would have to go nuts” with his nuclear weapons.
Jim Kingsland – FOXBusiness
Gold Dailywatch – Friday 26/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 27, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold open at 946.00/947.00 and ticked higher as the USD softened against major currencies, peaking at 947.75/948.75. However the metal lost steam and began to retreat as oil slumped and equity markets lost ground. Support was established near 940.00, however it continued to be offered, forcing gold lower. It slipped to an intraday low of 935.75/936.75 before climbing marginally higher where it traded quietly as the session unwound, finally closing at 940.00/941.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold weekly chart is showing as an “Outside UP” week after 3 down sessions. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective Gold bounced off 913 which is its 38.2% retracement support from the 865 to 990 up move. On the daily chart Gold at 940 shows as a small up day for the 4th day in a row. We are constructive on Gold heading into next week with initial target seen at 951.50 and support now at 933.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 939.48
Primary Support (Buy) – 930.46
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 948.81
Michael Jackson, the King of Pop dies!
Posted by: swissgold on: June 26, 2009
~ Love your song the Billie Jeans ~
May your soul Rest In Peace Michael Jackson
~ My King of Pop ~
Michael Jackson dies, aged 50
Michael Jackson was unquestionably the biggest pop star of the 1980s, and certainly one of the most popular recording artists of all time.
LOS ANGELES – Michael Jackson’s brother says it’s believed that the pop star died of cardiac arrest.
Jermaine Jackson cautioned at a hospital press conference Thursday that the cause of his death would not be known until an autopsy was performed.
He said Michael Jackson‘s personal doctor and paramedics tried to resuscitate him at his rented home in Holmby Hills. A team of doctors at UCLA Medical Center also tried for more than an hour.
Los Angeles police Lt. Gregg Strenk said at a separate news conference that police robbery-homicide detectives have been ordered to investigate, which is common in a high-profile case. Strenk says the coroner’s office, which will handle inquiries into the type of death, is taking possession of the body.
Gold Dailywatch – Thursday 25/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 26, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 936.50/937.50 and quickly retreated as the dollar gathered strength, dipping to a low of 932.75/933.75. Today’s economic data was relatively benign and later gold made back lost ground as equity markets rallied, finding significant resistance near 939.00. It retreated from this level on light profit taking and traded within a range for much of the session. The dollar tumbled as the day unwound, helping gold climb to an intraday high of 940.00/941.00 and it closed just below its highs at 939.00/940.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold is moving up nicely today to current 938 from yesterdays close of 931. This is the third ‘Up’ day in a row. We believe Gold ended its recent bear move when it traded to 913 on Monday. Considering the 990 to 913 drop our 38.2% target retracement is 942 followed by 951.50 the 50% level. The stop loss on our bullish view would be a drop back below 927 the 100 day ma.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 934.77
Primary Support (Buy) – 927.54
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 947.04
Gold Dailywatch – Wednesday 24/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 25, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 928.00/929.00 and dipped as the session began to an intraday low of 927.50/928.50. Durable goods surpassed expectations causing equity markets to rally and gold followed. The metal continued to be well bid, triggering stops, climbing to a high of 943.75/944.75. It quickly pulled back from its highs and traded lightly within a range as investors stepped away from the market. A stronger USD inspired some profit taking as the trading day approached the close, finally settling at 933.75/934.75. The Fed rate decision was unchanged as expected, having minimal impact on gold.
Technical Commentary
Gold broke the 100 day moving average at 927 with gusto today trading as high as 940. The current 931 shows as an ‘up day’ and thus confirms the technical reversal warning we saw yesterday by the large ‘hammer’ formation. The fact the unit met our 913 fibo target yesterday gives added confidence that the metal may have “hammered out its lows” to the downside. As a technical trade we would buy Gold here, looking for initial move to 944 the mid June congestion, with our stop below 927.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 929.20
Primary Support (Buy) – 916.39
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 945.16
Gold Marketwatch – Monday 22/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 23, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold opened on its highs at 925.00/926.00 in New York. Weaker oil and equity markets along with a rallying USD inspired heavy selling as the session got underway, driving it to an intraday low of 917.40/918.40. It recovered marginally from its lows and was held within a narrow range as the market went extremely quiet, closing at 920.00/921.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold resumed its bear move today trading to current 922 compared to Fridays 935. The close below our 100 day moving average at 927 will keep the pressure downward. Our next technical target is 913 which is the 61.8% Fibo pull back of the two month 865 to 990 up move. Only a close back above 930 can stabilize the bearish sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 926.62
Primary Support (Buy) – 914.05
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 934.85
Where the gold price wanna a to go??
Posted by: swissgold on: June 22, 2009
Senator Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, led the effort to drop a provision providing as much as $4,500 to people who trade in their vehicles for more fuel-efficient models. He said the plan, which would cost $1 billion, was a poor use of tax dollars when the government is projected to run its biggest budget deficit since 1945.
“It is a clunker,” Gregg said of the plan. “Why should our children and our grandchildren have to pay the bill” for the government subsidizing “somebody to buy their car today? How fiscally irresponsible is that?” he said.
Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, said the proposal was needed to help auto dealers hit by an “economic tsunami.” She said the plan would “help those who have been having an extremely difficult time just holding their head above water.”
The legislation provides more than $82 billion to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, which would bring total spending on the wars to more than $900 billion.
Lawmakers agreed to Obama’s request to include $5 billion to secure $108 billion in aid, primarily in the form of a line of credit, to the International Monetary Fund. The legislation would permit U.S. representatives to the IMF to agree to its planned sale of 13 million ounces of gold, one-eighth of the organization’s holdings, to help finance aid to poor countries.
Flu Funding
The bill also would provide $7.7 billion for pandemic flu programs.
Gold Marketwatch – Friday 20/6/2009
Posted by: swissgold on: June 20, 2009
Market Commentary
Gold opened at 936.00/937.00 and traded quietly within a narrow range for much of the morning. As the dollar lost ground, gold quickly rallied, reaching an intraday high of 938.75/939.75. Profit taking pulled it off its highs and the selling continued as equity markets retreated, dipping to 932.00/933.00. It ticked sideways as the session remained quiet, finally closing at 935.00/936.00.
Technical Commentary
Gold, at current 935, is showing as a “Down Week” for the third Friday in a row since touching 990. The metal has found support at 927.50 which represents the 50% retracement retracement of the 865 to 990 two month up move. The 100 day moving average is also giving support near 927.50 so we see this area as significant. On the topside 944 is pivotal as that level held as support for the first part of June but now offers resistance. We have now closed below 944 for 6 days in a row.
Technical Analysis
Pivot – 933.50
Primary Support (Buy) – 927.27
Primary Resistance (Sell) – 941.20
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